“This is the kind of thing where it’s likely to be a very slow-moving train as the financial sector and commercial real estate market move forward,” he said, adding that refinancing deals will play out in the next few years. “It’ll take some time.”
All in Economics
Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Debate Continues
Both agree the U.S. government has borrowed its way into disaster with the only way out being to debase the currency. Pal estimates the debasement to be 15% a year and thus if your investments and income isn’t rising by that much you are falling behind. Schiff doesn’t put a percentage on the money printing or debasement but essentially agrees. What a person is to do is where they disagree.
Pandemic Whiskey Boom Turns to Hangover
Price inflation affects consumers differently. For those drinking their whiskey with Coke, just about any will probably do, but for those imbibing theirs neat or on the rocks may spend a few more cheaper bucks for smoothness.
Boyd's Bounty Brings Boom-time Bucks
For Boyd, Harrison wrote “Something,” the Fab Four’s second most-covered hit and called “the greatest love song of the twentieth century” by Beatlephobe Frank Sinatra. Clapton’s passion for his friend’s wife inspired the scorching “Layla.” “I just knew — knew, knew! — it was about me,” Boyd recalled of the moment she first heard “Layla.” Later, when Boyd had left Harrison and married Clapton, he serenaded her with “Wonderful Tonight.”
Bailing Out For A Buck
Scott Rechler, chief executive officer of New York landlord RXR described the market in five stages of grief Elisabeth Kübler-Ross outlined in her 1969 book On Death and Dying: Denial, Bargaining, Depression, Anger, Acceptance,
“In 2024, we’re at that fifth stage of grief,” Rechler said. “People are now in acceptance.”
Little Pink Houses
With 400 square feet, no garage, and driveways just wide enough for one vehicle or two motorcycles — builders can offer prices under $300,000 in markets like San Antonio and Redmond, Oregon. The days of the $100,000 to $300,000 starter home are long gone in many markets. “This is the front end of what we are going to see,” said Ken Perlman, a managing principal at John Burns Research and Consulting.
Secretary Yellen's Dream Date
This pronouncement happened during a speed round of questions in Detroit while chatting with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. “I would choose John Maynard Keynes,” said Yellen. Keynes “changed the way all of us understand business cycles, public policy and financial markets.”
Maturities Pile Up
But loan sales are unlikely with properties now valued 50%-75% below their valuations at the time loans were made. No one will buy loans at par where the underlying collateral has fallen by 25%-50%. Selling loans at a loss will generate capital-eroding losses these banks can’t afford. For the same reason, borrowers seeking an extension for their undercollateralized loan will be asked to pay down the principal balance with cash they likely don’t have.
Swiftian Economics Super Bowl
Speaking of business, Ms. Swift will do hers–performing a concert in Tokyo on the 10th– and then fly to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl on the 11th. The game is projected to break all TV viewership records and with the increased female interest in seeing a gushing, cheering Swift and at least one tight end, the roster of advertisers will be a little different. Beauty brands Dove, e.l.f. eyes lips face, and NYX Professional Makeup have purchased what every year is the most expensive ad time in the world.
Bank Term Lending Program: Not Likely To Go Away Ever
With $131 billion outstanding in loans to banks and credit unions collateralized by U.S. Treasury and agency debt at par value one would assume the program like most other central bank and government programs would be extended, indefinitely.
Will Parlay Betting Crash the Housing Market?
Whitney’s claim is the housing market is in trouble because 74% of homes are owned by people over 50 and they won’t have anyone to sell to because family formation is dropping because young men are on their phones betting parlays on sporting events instead of..well..forming families, or practicing said formation.
Short Memories in Crypto
“It’s always gonna be this” way, said Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of crypto fund Split Capital. “People can’t help it. [Crypto] is literally the most FOMO [fear of missing out] industry ever.” Ever? Ebtikar wasn’t around for tulipmania.
Banking Stress, What Banking Stress?
A few minutes later Simon Rabinovitch with The Economist, threw this curveball at Powell. “Quick follow up to the question about banking stresses. You talked about how the banking system is resilient. Of course, part of the resilience of the past year stems from the Bank Term Funding Program that you launched in March.
GDP Up, So Are Bankruptcy Filings
For more than a decade interest rates were falling and zombie companies roamed the economy with the benefit of low interest payments. Free money from the government during COVID also provided a shot in the arm for the financially infirm.
The ESG Hustle
Carson Block is the founder of Muddy Waters LLC. His firm is shorting solar firm Sunrun, Inc. (for the second time) as a part of a short theme he calls the “ESG hustle.” When he released his first report on Sunrun, in July 2022, he included in the title that ESG stands for “Everybody Screws the Government.”
Arsonist Fireman Perfect for Job at Fed
The Arnold Fire Department announced early Thursday that they suspended 21-year-old firefighter Andrew Bischof his arrest on arson charges in connection to four suspicious fires in the New Kensington and Arnold areas over the weekend.
Janet Yellen Needs to Brush Up on Her ABCT
“I am feeling very good about that prediction,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Bloomberg when asked whether the U.S. would avoid a recession while still containing inflation. Yet, commercial bankruptcies increased nearly 17% in August compared to July, reports Fortune.com, marking the 13th consecutive month that total bankruptcies, including families and individuals, have logged year-over-year increases, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute.
Taxpayers Wonder Where the Yellow Went
“I’m actually quite proud of the fact that we did YRC [Yellow’s previous name],” Mnuchin said in 2020. “It saved lots and lots and lots of jobs. I’ve received calls from the company, from truckers, from other people who appreciate this.”
Bank Failure in the Heartland
The deposit insurer estimates the Deposit Insurance Fund will lose $54.2 million by having Dream First Bank, National Association, of Syracuse, Kansas assume all the deposits and enter into a commercial shared-loss agreement with the FDIC on the loans it purchased of the former Heartland Tri-State Bank.
Medicare in a Pickle, But Pickleball Will Not Put it Under
it’s plausible that pickleball medical costs are driving 5-10 percent of the unexpected medical cost trend this year.”