The majority of those surveyed — 59% — cited inflation as the top risk facing financial markets between now and year end. A US recession was listed as top risk by nearly a quarter of those queried.
Nuclear Option Has Foreign Central Banks Dodging the Dollar & Going for Gold
Saleha Mohsin, author of Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order told Alloway and Weisenthal, “In 2001, 9/11 hits and, you know, the Global War on Terror did not start with military tanks rolling into some country or American troops in their boots hitting the ground somewhere. It started Sept. 24th, 2001 with George W. Bush, with a stroke of a pen giving the US Treasury Department the authority to weaponize the dollar.”
Jared Bernstein Knows One Thing: "We Can Print Our Own Money"
“They sell bonds and then people buy the bonds and lends the money. Yeah.” Bernstein went on as he appeared to become further confused, while attempting to reassure himself with his own answer, reports The Daily Mail.
Orwell's America
So, for the really rich a misplaced day in New York (or on the other coast, California) can mean millions lost to the tax authority. How serious is this? Nahmias and Kamisher write, “state officials are stepping up already-intense scrutiny to make sure former residents have actually moved. It’s a complex operation that involves cutting-edge artificial intelligence and tracking everything from travel to the location of people’s pets.”
Millennials: In Costco We Trust
While us more seasoned gold bugs still feel alone, Katherine Hamilton wrote in the WSJ, “Americans can’t get enough gold. Costco, which started offering gold bars last year online and in a few stores, has been selling out within hours.”
The CRE Bust is a Slow-Moving Train
“This is the kind of thing where it’s likely to be a very slow-moving train as the financial sector and commercial real estate market move forward,” he said, adding that refinancing deals will play out in the next few years. “It’ll take some time.”
Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Debate Continues
Both agree the U.S. government has borrowed its way into disaster with the only way out being to debase the currency. Pal estimates the debasement to be 15% a year and thus if your investments and income isn’t rising by that much you are falling behind. Schiff doesn’t put a percentage on the money printing or debasement but essentially agrees. What a person is to do is where they disagree.
Pandemic Whiskey Boom Turns to Hangover
Price inflation affects consumers differently. For those drinking their whiskey with Coke, just about any will probably do, but for those imbibing theirs neat or on the rocks may spend a few more cheaper bucks for smoothness.
Boyd's Bounty Brings Boom-time Bucks
For Boyd, Harrison wrote “Something,” the Fab Four’s second most-covered hit and called “the greatest love song of the twentieth century” by Beatlephobe Frank Sinatra. Clapton’s passion for his friend’s wife inspired the scorching “Layla.” “I just knew — knew, knew! — it was about me,” Boyd recalled of the moment she first heard “Layla.” Later, when Boyd had left Harrison and married Clapton, he serenaded her with “Wonderful Tonight.”
Tapping 401ks to Pay the Bills
The number of emergency distributions hit record highs both of the last two years, according to Vanguard, which administers 401(k)-type accounts for nearly five million people and published the data ahead of an annual report scheduled for June, reports the WSJ.
Bailing Out For A Buck
Scott Rechler, chief executive officer of New York landlord RXR described the market in five stages of grief Elisabeth Kübler-Ross outlined in her 1969 book On Death and Dying: Denial, Bargaining, Depression, Anger, Acceptance,
“In 2024, we’re at that fifth stage of grief,” Rechler said. “People are now in acceptance.”
Elon's Boring Line of Bull
Nobody has bought Musk’s Boring line of bull except the Las Vegas Convention and Visitor Authority (LVCVA) which forked over $52.5 million in 2019 and $4 million per year for two tunnels less than a mile long under the convention center. Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman was the lone vote against the project. She told Bloomberg, “Everybody turned them down,” she now recalls thinking. “What are we, dumb here?”
The End of Extend and Pretend
Real estate mogul Barry Sternlicht told Bloomberg “there’s a giant skeleton in the closet of the regional banks,” referring to commercial real estate loans. He made the point that “every piece of real estate is worth less when interest rates go up 500 basis points.”
Little Pink Houses
With 400 square feet, no garage, and driveways just wide enough for one vehicle or two motorcycles — builders can offer prices under $300,000 in markets like San Antonio and Redmond, Oregon. The days of the $100,000 to $300,000 starter home are long gone in many markets. “This is the front end of what we are going to see,” said Ken Perlman, a managing principal at John Burns Research and Consulting.
Secretary Yellen's Dream Date
This pronouncement happened during a speed round of questions in Detroit while chatting with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. “I would choose John Maynard Keynes,” said Yellen. Keynes “changed the way all of us understand business cycles, public policy and financial markets.”
Maturities Pile Up
But loan sales are unlikely with properties now valued 50%-75% below their valuations at the time loans were made. No one will buy loans at par where the underlying collateral has fallen by 25%-50%. Selling loans at a loss will generate capital-eroding losses these banks can’t afford. For the same reason, borrowers seeking an extension for their undercollateralized loan will be asked to pay down the principal balance with cash they likely don’t have.
Government is the Gambling Addict
Offshore bookies like BetOnline.ag and Bet U.S. have dozens of ways to bet Ms. Swift. BetOnline.ag is offering 89 proposition bets, a reference to her album “1989.” The primary color for her top being red is a -250 favorite. The color of her lipstick being red is a prohibitive favorite at -1500.
Sin City Super Bowl; What Could Go Wrong?
Bad acting may not just happen in the betting universe. Fox announcer Joe Buck, who is not doing the Super Bowl play-by-play said on “The Opening Drive,” co-hosted by Randy Karraker and Brooke Grimsley on 101 ESPN in St. Louis that he would not be coming to town. “There’s gonna be a big something that happens. I don’t know what it is. I have no idea. That is going to be a mess, in my mind.”
Swiftian Economics Super Bowl
Speaking of business, Ms. Swift will do hers–performing a concert in Tokyo on the 10th– and then fly to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl on the 11th. The game is projected to break all TV viewership records and with the increased female interest in seeing a gushing, cheering Swift and at least one tight end, the roster of advertisers will be a little different. Beauty brands Dove, e.l.f. eyes lips face, and NYX Professional Makeup have purchased what every year is the most expensive ad time in the world.
Chiefs-Dolphins on Peacock Proves Peter Gent's Prophecy
The late Peter Gent wrote of a pay-per-view Super Bowl in his deeply cynical novel The Franchise published in 1983.